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The CAT team has updated Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Germany, Ethiopia, Morocco, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine and the USA.
“Economic downturn temporarily reduces emissions, so it is a question of how long it will last, given we are still in the middle of the pandemic. The real long-term difference can come from post-pandemic economic recovery packages and how they integrate low carbon futures. It’s too early to predict their effect, but there does appear to be a worrying trend where countries are protecting their fossil fuel industries” said Niklas Höhne, founding partner of NewClimate Institute.
For the US, the Trump Administration continues to systematically walk back climate policy now even more using the pandemic as justification. If the new rule rolling back the Obama-era vehicle emissions standards withstands legal challenges, a 12% share of electric vehicle sales in 2025, projected by the last CAT assessment, will drop to 7%.
The USD 2 trillion recovery package goes without support for climate. But renewables continue to dominate in terms of new investment. The CAT’s US emissions projections for 2030 are 5%–10% lower compared to our previous projections in December 2019, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic on emissions and the greening of the electricity sector due to market forces.
Chile’s rating has been upgraded from “Highly Insufficient” to “Insufficient” based on its updated Paris Agreement target submitted to the UNFCCC.
Chile was one of the first countries to officially submit an updated target.“
Chile is one of the few countries that followed the specific request of the Paris Agreement to submit an updated target that is more ambitious than the first. More countries have to follow suit,” said Deborah Ramalope, head of climate policy analysis at Climate Analytics.
The CAT grades government’s Paris Agreement 2030 targets with one of five possible ratings, based on its “fair share” methodology: 1.5˚C Paris Agreement compatible, 2˚C compatible, Insufficient, Highly Insufficient and Critically Insufficient.